Almost ready for St. Louis and the NSCAA

NSCAA, Tournaments, , , , ,

Just in case you were following along with us, checking off the dates until the big NSCAA soccer conference in St. Louis, here is our booth status. Almost ready!

Our TourneyCentral.com NSCAA booth. A little more nip and tuck, but we're almost there.

Our TourneyCentral.com NSCAA booth. A little more nip and tuck, but we're almost there.

Meet us in St. Louis for the NSCAA.
We’re in booth 1735 and we won’t even try to sell you anything, so you can stay and chat as long as you want. Really. And, if you want to make a podcast promoting your soccer tournament, Back of the Net will help you with that. You don’t even need to be a TourneyCentral tournament.

Are you going to update your soccer tournament web site soon?

Tournaments, ,

A message that came over a few minutes ago for one of our spring tournaments went like this:

Are you going to updating this site soon so we have specifics for our families. Our U10 Girls National team would like to register for this tournament but need more information.

If you have not already started working on your 2009 soccer tournament web site, you are already late and probably losing teams. The spring season has already begun and NOW is the time to lock down your dates, marketing and get with marketing to your guest teams.

This recession will affect soccer tournament applications. Don’t put yourself at a disadvantage by not being ready.

Do it today.

Meet us in St. Louis for the NSCAA.
We’re in booth 1735 and we won’t even try to sell you anything, so you can stay and chat as long as you want. Really. And, if you want to make a podcast promoting your soccer tournament, Back of the Net will help you with that. You don’t even need to be a TourneyCentral tournament.

Soccer Tournament Travel Stats Analysis

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I was going through some old documents during a New Year cleaning and discovered this analysis given to a tournament several years ago. It is all still very relevant; perhaps even more so given the larger soccer tournament audience on the Internet.

I hope it provides some insight, especially the opportunities sections.

1. It is important to note that most searches are done by TEAM MANAGERS or COACHES who are acting on behalf of their entire team. The average player represents 2.4 visitors to a tournament. The average number of players per team is 16 with tournaments who host teams over U14 (14 for teams who stop at U14)

When calculating the impact of the searches, you should use the number of searches done, in this case, at the peak of 51, as being (51×16)x2.4 or 1,958 individual users. There will be some statistical variance on this as there are some teams who pass along the web site information prior to the event to parents and these parents are individual searches, but even at 80% of the searches being done by team managers and coaches, the number is still significant. (1,566) The question here is: Would a local restaurant be happy with and additional 1,500 visitors on a weekend, some with return visits? Average lunch at 5.00×1566=$7,830.

2. The searches that are the most significant and immediate are: (in order: Coupons, Hotels, Restaurants.) The searches are more or less significant depending on the point in the tournament cycle.
Pre acceptance: Hotel searches are seen at about 6 weeks out, when applications start picking up. This is most likely due to a task-orientation form the coach or team manager. However, the traffic, while it peaks, is mostly spread over a period of 2 weeks. We see another traffic lift when the acceptance is sent out, but significant traffic is seen when the schedule is posted.

We have no independent data to support this activity. However, we believe, through anecdotal data, that team managers are “in the zone” after the schedule is posted and they are looking for confirmation data, maybe switching to a hotel that is closer to their games or searching for directions as they put together their travel packs for the parents. Again, judging from the limited number of individual IP addresses used for the searches, we believe that most of the hotel searches are done by the team manager or coach, not the players and/or their parents.

Opportunities:
1) Knowing that people search for and find hotels on this schedule gives hotels an opportunity to market at acceptance and schedule.

2) The application process can perhaps ask if they have booked into a hotel and get a confirmation number.

3) The tournament can maybe offer directed email marketing to teams who have not confirmed a hotel booking and offer these contacts to hotels for a “last minute” offer, etc. NOTE: The tournament should NEVER give out email or mailing addresses of coaches or teams. All advertising opportunities should be handled by the tournament. Great use of Twitter or SMS.

Restaurant/Coupon Searches: People love a good deal. We promote the coupons through a fixed placement button along the left rail of any page on the site, which accounts for 80%+ of our searches for coupons. With the v.3 upgrade, our searches will be even more targeted to establishments that support the tournament through web-based advertising. Again, great use of Twitter.

Traffic is steady for the coupons the month previous and bumps up about a month before the event. We see peek traffic following the acceptance and again at the schedule, much the same traffic patterns as the hotel. The coupons do have some sustainability during the event, however, whereas the hotel searches dropped off on Friday, the coupon searches continued, though not at the rate they did the week prior to the tournament.

The traffic patterns of the tournament were imposed against a similar tournament, but one that sold 22 web-based coupons. A significantly different pattern was formed: 1) 62% of searches looked on multiple deals. 2) traffic at the peaks were 256% higher than the peaks shown for the tournament and 3) peaks were not are sharply defined by “lulls” of non search days, i.e., traffic was highly sustained the 2 weeks prior to the tournament, and rose sharply the week previous. The more deals there were, the more people searched.

We also saw a significant number of repeat visitors’ search almost daily the week prior to the tournament. However, since there were no deals to look at, the traffic did not sustain or grow.

Opportunities:
1) Until now, restaurants were always hard to get advertising dollars from as they felt they would always get “their fair share of the traffic.” This was true as most food decisions were a matter of luck. After the game, the players would get into the car, take a random right or left turn out of the park and see what looked good. Now, restaurants can have players and their families COMMITTED to them BEFORE they get to the tournament.

2) Restaurants can offer a “pre-booking” or even take orders and payment for food BEFORE the team even gets into town. Imagine if the restaurant put up a web page, linked from the expanded listing on the tournament web site, that took a seating reservation, menu order and credit card payment BEFORE the team came into town. There would be no waiting in the huge mob in the lobby, no waiting for food orders and the team could leave when they were done eating, instead of waiting for the check.. then waiting in line to pay.

3) Follow up and customer loyalty. The restaurant could tie in their order to a particular team and have the tournament then send out a follow up coupon deal for an establishment in their local town.. Example: Eat at a Perkins in Evansville and then when you get home to Dayton, there is a coupon offer in your email, good for the local Dayton Perkins, which expires in 2 weeks.

Churches/Worship: HUGE opportunity to sell advertising here… Not a whole lot of searching, but this is a growing market segment, especially the Christian, nondenominational segment.

Family Entertainment: Again, pretty much the same pattern as coupons and restaurants. Many of the same opportunities exist for this sector as well.

Traffic and search patterns are typical of what we see in other tournament events, with the exception of marked “lulls” in the coupon area. But this is easily solved by selling more web-based advertising.

The soccer tournament market is on line and wants to be on line. They like the ability to search for deals, research hotels and other places of interest on the same site as everything else is happening.

It is important to note that while the tournament can give their advertisers, sponsors and supporters GREAT visibility through the web site, they can also make businesses who don’t support the tournament, invisible. When presented with rich travel information that is concise and appears complete, why would a team manager, coach, parent or player search any other travel database for a city they are unfamiliar with?

They wouldn’t and won’t.

The spring season has already begun

Tournaments, , ,

Since Thanksgiving, we have seen a marked increase in the number of applications to the spring soccer tournaments. In the past week over Christmas and going into the New Year, the applications have more than tripled.

Are you ready?

If you are running a soccer tournament that is scheduled before July, 2009 and you have not already started marketing and updating your Web site, you are already late.

Our advice: Make sure your Web site it up-to-date with your rules, sanctioning form, dates and costs. If your state association has not yet approved your spring tournament, make a lot of noise. Teams are deciding NOW which tournaments they are attending and your state is putting your event at a disadvantage.

Get your marketing out there in bulletin boards like Back of the Net. Make sure you do a podcast for additional media coverage. Print up postcards and business cards and ask your club coaches to hand them out at every opportunity.

The NSCAA Convention is in St. Loius this year and Midwest teams travel more easily than coastal clubs. Make sure you advertise in publications that will distribute at the show.

And lastly, but most importantly, make sure all your club coaches, parents and players know when and where your soccer tournament will be held. Make sure they have the basics like what kid of teams you host, how many and where they come from. Your largest marketing department is right there in your backyard. And, they are free!

Do you welcome new volunteers into your soccer tournament?

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The lifeblood of a successful soccer tournament is the army of volunteers who run the concession stand, sell the sponsorship ads, stand duty as field marshals, sell t-shirts, direct the parking and generally make sure your guest teams feel welcome and cared-for. But, how many of these volunteers are the same people, doing the same jobs year after year?

If your soccer tournament is like most, the same folks are doing the same jobs every year. On one hand, that is good because you have consistency. On the other, it is bad because there is no new talent to take over these critical jobs if the veterans were to leave.

I read Chris Brogan’s blog regularly about social media. For the most part, he is considered an expert in social media technologies such as Twitter, blogging, Facebook and the like. But I don’t think he is an expert on human behavior. Yesterday, he posted a rant about people using robots to reply to a new Twitter follow. There was (and still is) some discussion going on about his opinion on using robots, but I think Jeff Crites’s comment (#182) sums up the issue most closely aligned with soccer tournament would-be volunteers.

Most volunteers just want to help out and have some fun. Having been involved in soccer clubs for a number of year, both in the inner circles and on the outside, there are mainly two reasons people do not volunteer, regardless of the excuse they may use.

1. They are afraid that if they open their time to one or two things, the tournament will take advantage of their time and inundate them with responsibilities. So, it is easier to say no and keep the door shut.

2. They do not feel accepted by the “inner circle” of folks who already run the show. This is perhaps the most common reason.

A soccer tournament, like Twitter, is a scary place. There is a lot going on and a lot of folks who are experts at making it happen. They know all the rules — written and unwritten — and they make it all look easy. They are intimidating to new folks. And — like the Twitter community — the veterans have little patience with anyone who is new coming in and shaking things up. (If this does not describe your soccer tournament, consider yourself very, very lucky. Be honest with yourself; this is all part of that human condition we’re cursed with.)

New volunteers do threaten the status quo. They threaten the existing “power circles” the veterans have built. And that is a good thing because they also bring in new blood, new energy, and a different perspective. If there is no change, there is no growth.

Sure, the veterans will rant about these “new guys coming in and wanting to change everything,” but experienced, seasoned leaders will do it in private and as a release of their own fears of becoming irrelevant and obsolete, not as a rant against new blood who may not quite understand the rules but have good intentions. There may be a few new folks who step up to volunteer for the wrong reasons, but for the most part, they will be found out quickly and either corrected or asked to leave.

Our advice: Running a soccer tournament is more about leading people than it is about finding teams and scheduling games. Stop and think about how you felt the very first day you volunteered. Think about how scary it was being among all those people who were so sure of how to do things. Did you feel comfortable? How long did it take you to become the expert you are now? Did anyone take you aside and show you the ropes?

As a tournament director, identify those areas in your organization that have built walls to new volunteers. Actively seek to tear them down. And, if you have built a wall around yourself, start tearing that down. Pair new volunteers with those expert veterans who are open to change. Establish a new volunteer system that encourages change.

And try the new ideas suggested by new volunteers, but make them responsible for executing their own ideas. If they work, you’re ahead of a lot of soccer tournaments who are doing the same-ol’, same-ol’ every year. And, if they don’t, then they don’t. Don’t make a big fuss, don’t point fingers, but do encourage change, personal responsibility and innovation. If other volunteers see that you rant on unsuccessful ideas, they will be less apt to propose them and your tournament will not grow.

And never, ever use the phrase “We tried that once and it didn’t work.” If a new volunteer is willing to put in time and effort on an idea you tried a few years ago, perhaps times have changed and it will work this time.

Whatever you do, never publicly rant against new people who are enthusiastic and bright-eyed, even if they get stuff wrong and tick you off with their energy and excitement. It will make your soccer tournament look stodgy and you will scare off entire generations of potential volunteers. And your tournament will stagnate as your current experts get older and more resistant to change.

Make this year the year you resolve to try new things and break the status quo. In a down economy, the worst product to be selling is a commodity that anyone can get anywhere. Resolve to be different, to be special. Resolve that new people with new ideas will help you get there.

Meet us in St. Louis for the NSCAA. Jan 14-17, 2009
We’re in booth 1735 and we won’t even try to sell you anything, so you can stay and chat as long as you want. Really. And, if you want to make a podcast promoting your soccer tournament, Back of the Net will help you with that. You don’t even need to be a TourneyCentral tournament.

TourneyCentral to offer three levels of soccer tournament software

News

TourneyCentral, a Rivershark, Inc. brand, announced today the addition of three levels of service for their award-winning soccer tournament product. Each package will contain increasing levels of features and support, depending on the size and volume of the soccer tournament.

Gerard McLean, President and CEO of Rivershark, explains. “We realize tournament size and complexity varies among youth soccer tournaments. What one tournament needs is not necessarily the needs of another.”

Previously, all tournaments were given one basic package that contained all the modules, from team applications through sceheduling and scoring, including referee scheduling and a full-featured hotel management system.

McLean adds, “Larger tournaments typically require a full host of featurs and services, whereas smaller ones may just be interested in the basics such as online applications, scheduling and scoring.”

The basics like a web site, online team applications and online scheduling and scoring will be available for the basic (Select) level and for each of the other two. The middle package (Premier) will contain the software modules most associated with a TourneyCentral soccer tournament, including hotel room requests for team, volunteer and referee scheduling as well as live support. And lastly, the high-end (Elite) package will contain a full-service concierge-like service for the tournaments that require additional service.

A grid that outlines the packages and services is available at TourneyCentral.com. The TourneyCentral product will remain a hosted, web-based service.

About TourneyCentral
TourneyCentral.com provides comprehensive, event-focused, web-based solutions for youth soccer tournaments and is wholly owned by Rivershark, Inc. an Ohio Corporation. Since 1999, TourneyCentral has been producing web sites that provide youth soccer tournaments with end-to-end integrated experience management for guest teams, from marketing through scoring. In addition, the advertising tools provide the tournaments with an increased opportunity for advertising and sponsorship revenue as a result of significantly increased traffic to the web site. For more information, visit www.tourneycentral.com.

Companion and marketing partner properties consist of: The Soccer Tournament Review, a blog and iTunes podcast for tournament directors, MyTournamentSpace, a photo-sharing site linked directly into the tournament game schedule and www.ticoscore.com, a single-source database and ranking system for soccer tournaments.

TourneyCentral will be exhibiting at the NSCAA Conference in St. Louis this January, booth number 1175.

Contact for more information
Gerard McLean
gmclean [at] rivershark.com
937-836-6255

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Troy Strawberry Soccer Invitational talks to Larry Miller with Back of the Net

Tournaments, , , , , ,

David Pappas with the Troy Strawberry Soccer Invitational is interviewed by Larry Miller with Back of the Net.

Click here to listen to the podcast or access through iTunes.

Details for the Strawberry Soccer Invitational are
WHEN: May 16 – May 19, 2009
WHERE: Troy, Ohio
APPLICATION DEADLINE: Monday, Apr 20, 2009

The recession will affect soccer tournaments

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Make no mistake about it; the current recession will hurt some soccer tournaments. Attendance will be down as teams will travel to fewer and fewer tournaments. And some tournaments, especially the ones that attract teams from more affluent areas where wealth is based on stocks and high home value may feel especially high pressure to limit soccer tournament travel.

The only bright light in this whole financial mess is the low cost of gasoline. Or, is it?

While teams may be cutting the number of tournaments in their schedule, it really only matters if they cut yours. If you have worked to create a must-attend tournament event, most likely you will survive the cut.

Here are some must-attend qualities:

1. You have consistently worked to make the teams feel at home while they are guests at your event.
Have you worked to make sure their questions were answered quickly via email? If they have had hotel problems, did you help to resolve them? When there were disputes about scoring, rules, etc, did you work with each party to resolve for a win-win-win? Are your volunteers cheerful and helpful? At the end of the tournament, did the most loosingest team remark in some fashion, “We lost every game, but had a blast! We’ll be back next year!”

2. Your organization is solid.
You have control of your data and everyone knows what is going on, from the host coach at a league game to the advertising coordinator to the person in charge of registering the teams. Your web site is up-to-date at all times, even to the minute during the tournament weekend. Your front page has news, maybe even hourly during the competition.

3. You have solid sponsors
This may seem like a little thing, but adidas doesn’t just sponsor anyone. And, once you get their sponsorship, you don’t get to keep it forever without working hard at it, especially in this economy. Parents and coaches are fairly savvy about what it takes to convince a corporation to spend sponsorship dollars at a youth soccer event that only takes place for 2-3 days in a limited geographic area. A display of some well-heeled sponsors get you respect.

4. Games are played on time and are well-controlled
Don’t underestimate the power of keeping a tight control of the games on the field. Many teams have been to a lot of tournaments where nobody seems to be in charge, games are played when referees stroll onto the field and all sorts of loosey-goosey standards. Don’t be one of those events! Expect everyone to show up on time, schedule enough referees to over-cover the games and make sure the volunteer field marshals know the times, locations and duties. And, if you can’t find volunteers, pay your field marshals. They are that important, for safe play and for your brand protection.

5. Advertise and market, market, market
A lot of soccer tournaments are going to be scared of this economy and pull back their advertising. DON’T LET YOUR TOURNAMENT BE ONE OF THEM! NOW is the time to go out and become visible. Now is the time to grab market share. Now is the time to be bold. Make sure your TICO Score is up-to-date, your tournament is listed correctly at your state association and your other media like podcasts and bulletin board advertising is intact. And, get some postcards/business cards for all your coaches to hand out (ask for Don Denny.)

6. Web site
I saved this for last, but it really is the most important of all. Make sure your web site is up-to-date, and uses the latest technology to bring your guest teams real-time information including scores and standings. We recommend any and all tournaments on this list. Your web site is your front door so it should be easy to find out information. (Who, What, Where, When, How Much does this cost) The application form should be readily accessible and work without any fancy log-ins, pre registration, etc. All TourneyCentral soccer tournaments have these capabilities built in from the ground up.

Our advice: Firstly, if you don’t already have a TourneyCentral web site, get one. Secondly, if you do, make sure it is turned on and ready for 2009. Thirdly, be visible everywhere. If you can, go to the NSCAA in St. Louis. Make sure your TICO Score is current. Advertise and get cards to hand out. But mostly, believe in your event and make sure your club/host coaches, teams, parents and players are your greatest champions and they know and love your tournament as much as you do.

2009 could be make or break for a lot of events. Make sure yours is on the “make” list.

Meet us in St. Louis for the NSCAA.
We’re in booth 1735 and we won’t even try to sell you anything, so you can stay and chat as long as you want. Really. And, if you want to make a podcast promoting your soccer tournament, Back of the Net will help you with that. You don’t even need to be a TourneyCentral tournament.

Playing on the big soccer field now!

Tournaments, , , , ,

Hey guys, we just made it into Alltop.com! This is a huge deal.

This means that all your soccer tournament news will reach a wider audience than ever before as will the blog entries we write regularly. As TourneyCentral.com continues to reshape the soccer tournament market as the premium event management software, your tournament will also get a lift because you are part of the TourneyCentral family.

So, take being including in the Alltop.com blog magazine rack as a compliment and confirmation that we each kick as… umm, grass 🙂

What is Alltop? The easiest way to describe it is to let you watch the video below. Enjoy.

Are you up or down in your applications?

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Are you up or down in application for your soccer tournament? How do you know? Are you comparing from last year? Why?

Here is an interesting and perhaps more reasonable way of looking at your numbers. Look up the birth statistics for the areas that you draw from. If you have a TourneyCentral Web site, log into your admin area and click on the Tournament PulsePoint™ tab to see where your teams are coming from.

Birth rates in Ohio

Birth rates in Ohio

Graph the birth rates by age. That is your potential market. If you see one year dramatically low, why spend more money trying to attract that age group? You may already have a large percentage of the available pool.

Just another way of looking at your marketing dollars.

Consistent design matters

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Every so often, a tournament looking to join the TourneyCentral family calls up and says something along the lines of:

We’re a very different tournament and we wany you to design a totally different web site for us. We want to look and act different than everyone else in your calendar.

When pressed, they admit that:

  • They have soccer teams apply
  • They accept soccer teams to play
  • They schedule two soccer teams against each other to play in a match to see who is the winner
  • They keep score to see who advances to take a trophy
  • They accept advertising and sponsorship
  • They are basically running a soccer tournament where they need to get large numbers of players, parents, coaches and fans to a field at a particular date and time.

So, I ask, what sort of “different” did you need? Well, we just want a different LOOK, we want menu choices to be different, we want to do our own thing.

But the irony of the matter is your guest teams don’t want you to do your own thing. They want to know how to read about your soccer tournament, they want to know how to apply easily, they want to know where the schedule is posted, they want to know how to find the scores. In short, they want to know, not guess.

Recently, I ran across this blog post that explains the whole point rather nicely. In short, a hotel decided that they wanted to be different and were going to design their hotel room card keys with the branding DOWN and the swipe strip UP. Anyone who has ever stayed in a hotel knows that the strip goes down, you look for the little arrow and insert the card with the arrow pointing toward the door. Because this has been standardized, if it doesn’t work that way, you would think it is broken, just like the author did. Valuable time and hotel resources were wasted on a customer who didn’t “understand” the hotel difference. I suspect that there was more than one confused customer on every night the hotel entertained guests.

Our Advice: Different is good, but focus different on where it makes the most sense for a soccer tournament; on your competition, your game format, the helpfulness of your staff, a high level of guest service, great pairings, etc. Different with your web site only adds to confusion and increases your tournament costs and, in some instances, drives a team away. If you hide the front door, how do you expect a team to enter?

A system like TourneyCentral has been “battle-tested” and gives teams a level of comfort that they are entering a well-managed soccer tournament. When they see that top graphic, top menu, side bar and look and feel of a “TourneyCentral” site, they know immediately they are in good hands. (a word of caution, we have developed such a solid brand over the past ten years that many events are copying our look and feel… look for the Powered By TourneyCentral.com seal at the bottom)

We continue to change and add new features to make your event stand out, but we do it in subtle ways to keep that high level of comfort and trust your guest teams have with your event.

Be different, but not weird. Different is good; weird just costs your soccer tournament time, money and teams.

The road to the 2009 NSCAA

NSCAA, Tournaments, , , ,
Our NCSAA booth is out of the case and ready for the 2009 design

Our NCSAA booth is out of the case and ready for the 2009 design

Hey soccer fans, we’re getting ready for the NSCAA in St. Louis and we got our display booth up and ready for our 2009 design.

It doesn’t look like much now, but stay tuned and follow along as we start adding really cool stuff to it!

We’re in booth 1735. I don’t know if that is a good spot of not (I’m told it is) but be sure to put us on your list of folks to see when you are at the convention.

Soccer tournament stickiness

Tournaments

In the Internet world, we have a term called stickiness which means: Something about the Web site compels the reader to stay longer, read more pages, bookmark you, etc. The test of stickiness of a soccer tournament is: do they come back, do they bookmark, do they remember you.

Today, an email came across my desk sent from a coach who played in the 2007 Ohio Cup in July. It read:

Just wanted to let you know that I am down to my last game of regular season. We are currently 8-3-4. Two of our losses went to the same team in some very close games. I just wanted to thank you for your inspiration at the beginning of my season. It has been a wonderful year and I just felt the need to say thank you!!!

Wow! Whatever the Ohio Cup did for that coach we all should aspire to. To be remembered as the tournament that sparked a great season is a goal that we should all look to achieve. To have a coach drop an email three months later is perhaps the ultimate testament to the achievement of that goal.

Our Advice: Be memorable! Whatever your goals are; to be the first of the season, to be the largest, to attract the most State Cup winners, to be.. whatever, first and foremost in that list of goals should to be memorable.

Marketing and growing a niche brand

Tournaments

Cameron Woo, the publisher of The Bark, the New Yorker of Dog Magazines, shares some insight for building a brand within a niche market. Woo started The Bark as a newsletter to increase the amount of dog-friendly park space and expanded to become the premium dog magazine brand fewer than ten years later. The path he carved mirrors a soccer tournament growth plan almost turn for turn. Start with your loyal core group, find some common interests with those who can help you grow but may not be as passionate and.. well, I’ll let him tell it…
Listen now on |

Pasta Hut vs Real Pasta

Tournaments,

My daughter had a high school tournament to play this weekend on she asked for pasta for Friday night dinner. I remembered the Pizza Hut commercials where they showed these big trays of “3 pounds of pasta.” So, I ordered the Tuscan chicken alfredo, thinking that it would be somewhat delicious. Everyone on the commercial seemed happy enough.

We got the box of pasta, flipped open the lid and were let down almost immediately. The pasta was not a deep dish of cheesy goodness, smothered in rich, creamy alfredo sauce like they showed on TV. Instead, it was a single layer of helpless, lifeless, over-cooked pasta curls with some quasi-grilled chicken barely there on top. It tasted like pizza and had the texture of oatmeal. Rufus enjoyed most of it the day after.

Our advice: Don’t oversell your tournament! Make sure what you deliver at least looks like the product you are advertising. You may be able to get one or two teams to buy a really good sales job, but they won’t be back. And, chance are, they will tell friends.